Monday, April 23, 2012

ACTIVE ETF OIL MODEL OUTPERFORMS LONG ONLY OIH

The Active ETF OIL model has it data start in July 2002. $1 invested in the active model would now be worth $5.4 vs $2.6 for a long only position representing a significant improvement as a result from an active approach. It out performs the long only approach in six out of ten years often significantly so. Also in years when there were enormous drawdowns in a long only position for example 2008 the model was down 18% vs a down 60.15% for the underlyer. Similarly in 2011 the underlyer is down over 18% and the model is down 11%. The model volatility is half that of the underlying ETF. The OIL Model is currently long and has been so since March 27.

EEM MODEL SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPERFORMS UNDERLYER

The large scale EEM model is currently neutral. The previous long signal ended on 4/17 close of business. Net net the model has underperformed the long only EEM strategy for 2012. However this model has significantly outperformed the underlier since inception. Since the inception of the model the value of $1 invested in it would be $7.28 on april 20 2012. The value of $1 invested in a long position in the underlyer would be $2.47. As you can see this is significant out performance. There are times of course when the model lags the underlyer. However while it is tempting to assume that because of demand from china that EEM soared throughout this period there were some huge bumps in the road. For example in 2008 when the underlyer was down a whopping 49% due to fall off of global demand for commodities and materials the model soared by following the trend when long and exiting prior to the most major drops.